The Timeline of the Next Drought
No one can say when the next drought will start, but they tend to follow a pattern. Planning around that pattern is better than waiting for the first dry month.
How does a drought usually unfold?
Droughts build slowly. Rainfall falls short, soil moisture drops, pasture and crops suffer, streams and wells decline and eventually water supply and the economy feel it. Recovery can take longer than the dry spell itself.
This page does not predict when a drought will come. It describes how one typically develops so you can plan.
In the Texas Panhandle and High Plains, wind and heat can make a dry spell harder, since evaporation steals what little moisture arrives.
Past droughts have varied a lot in length and severity, so avoid planning around a single story or a single year.
What are the early warning signs?
Watch rainfall totals, soil moisture, pasture growth, stock tank levels and crop condition. The U.S. Drought Monitor maps conditions weekly, Drought.gov offers outlooks and resources, and the NOAA and National Weather Service pages show forecasts and climate data.
Local observations count too. If water runs low sooner than usual, treat it as a signal.
Keep a simple notebook of rainfall at your place, since gauge readings from your own fields can differ from town totals.
Compare what you see locally with the weekly maps, because a county-level picture can hide local differences.
- Below-normal rainfall for several weeks
- Falling soil moisture and slower forage growth
- Lower stock tank and well levels
- Rising feed and hay prices
- Drought Monitor categories moving up
What should a dairy do early?
Review water supply and backup sources, test wells, estimate feed needs and shop for forage early. Talk with your nutritionist about options if feed costs rise, and with your lender about credit before you need it.
The dairy herd care guide and crop calendar guide cover herd and field planning in general terms, and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension publishes drought resources for Texas producers.
Start conversations early. A lender who has seen your plan before the stress arrives is easier to work with than one who hears about it for the first time in a bad month.
Make a rough budget for a year of high feed prices and see what it does to cash flow. Doing this on paper is cheaper than learning it on the ground.
What happens as drought deepens?
Feed costs rise, water gets harder to find, and pressure builds on cash flow. Some producers reduce herd size or change rations. These are hard decisions, so talk with advisors before acting.
The Texas Water Development Board publishes water planning information, and your local groundwater district can explain restrictions and rules.
Water use rules may tighten in a drought, so know what applies to your well or surface water and who to call with questions.
Keep contact details for your well driller and hay suppliers current, since they get busy fast once dry conditions spread.
What help may be available?
Programs may exist for drought losses, including Farm Service Agency offerings, insurance through the Risk Management Agency, and conservation help from NRCS. Terms, dates and eligibility change, so confirm each with the official source.
If worry about money or the future gets heavy, talk with someone you trust, and call or text 988 to reach the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline.
Document everything: feed purchases, hauling costs, dates and losses, because programs often ask for proof.
How does recovery work?
Recovery is slow. Pastures need time and rain, herds need rebuilding and finances need repair. Keep records of what you spent, lost and changed, and review your plan with your lender and advisors.
After the dry spell, update your plan. Many producers say the next drought is easier because they wrote down what they learned from the last one.
Take a day to rest when you can. Long droughts wear on people as much as on land.
Where can you find perspective?
Farm.FM ranching and farm.FM farming stories share how producers have handled dry years, and a farm.FM story about drought on the farm offers company during a hard season.
This page is general education and not financial or legal advice.
Share what you learn with neighbors and local groups, because drought response works better when people compare notes and help each other with hay, hauling and water.
Sources and further reading
- U.S. Drought Monitor: weekly drought maps
- Drought.gov: national drought information
- NOAA: climate and weather science
- National Weather Service: forecasts and warnings
- Texas Water Development Board: water planning and funding
- 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline: call or text 988
Ask locally: Ask your local groundwater district and AgriLife Extension agent what drought plans and water rules apply in your area.